Exbookie playoff thread

[ACE-ACE]

Investment plays 16-7-1 +$17,975.00
Action plays 41-41-1 -$2171.00
Total 57-48-2 +$15,804.00
411 system now 16-7-1 69%


STATS vs ATS

Home 120
away 126

Dog 135
Fav 121

Ov 125
Un 136

Points that matter 35 games out of 256 a low 13.5 %...most years 16%


only 4 games this week

spend 3 hours on eachgame so far


only one 411 play this week


found edge in 3 of the 4 games


Asking Nice....IF YOU KNOW MY PLAYS DO NOT POSTED THEM OR HINT WHAT THEY ARE!!!!...THIS IS MY THREAD AND THERX TOLD ME TO REPORT IT AND THAT PERSON COULD GET BAN.


AS always more to come


Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

........

 

[ACE-ACE]

myline on those 4 games

........yr...........last 8..........last 4
Min ............... -2
GB -4.5........................... -5.5

Cin.................... -7.5 ..... -2.5
hou -2.5

Ind. pk ........... pk ........... -0.5
Bal

Sea -2.5 ........... -5............ -0.5
Was


sea has cover 12
was has cover 11 this season

ind cover 10 game
Bal only 7 games

cin
gb
min
hou....all cover 9 games this season

 

[ACE-ACE]

sea has cover 12
was has cover 11 this season

ind cover 10 game
Bal only 7 games

cin
gb
min
hou....all cover 9 games this season

 

[ACE-ACE]

LINE OFF NUMBERS

GB +17
MIN +50
CIN +48
HOU -48
IND +15
BAL +47
SEA +155
WASH +50
DEN +110
SF +36
ATL +67
NE +102

As I say every year...NO TEAM HAS GOT INTO THE SUPERBOWL WITH A MINUS!!!!! FOLLOWING IT FOR 20 YEARS

 

[ACE-ACE]

[h=3]Top NFL Public Bets[/h]

#1 105 Indianapolis Colts 83%

#2 103 Minnesota Vikings 69%

#3 107 Seattle Seahawks 57%

#4 102 Houston Texans 50%

 

[3pointdog]

Ace, I ended up tied for 13th in the Hilton contest. My 2nd year in it. just letting you know. But at least I was in the money....

 

[3pointdog]

I was only 5 games out of 1st. I had 52.5 and winner had 57.5. I
i was really tied for 7th but the way they handle ties pushed me to be tied for 13th for the payouts.

On the the playoffs!!!! I like the sides this week....

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, I ended up tied for 13th in the Hilton contest. My 2nd year in it. just letting you know. But at least I was in the money....

Great job....maybe we can work together next year.......which side do you like the most?

 

[uscmd]

3PD, CONGRATS. *

Always nice to see one of the Rx folks finish in the money.

 

[procidius]

finally .......thank you it was getting annoying.......ACe what do you think about chicago...........etccc

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

sea has cover 12
was has cover 11 this season

ind cover 10 game
Bal only 7 games

cin
gb
min
hou....all cover 9 games this season

Ace. I have Seattle, washington, Indy all at 11-5 ATS this season. shoot me a PM if you want to chat playoffs

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace. I have Seattle, washington, Indy all at 11-5 ATS this season. shoot me a PM if you want to chat playoffs

sea 12 wins
dall
gb
car
ne
sf
min
nyj
chi
az
buf
sf
stl

in order of the week

that is 12....tell me the that is not?

 

[xflrejects]

Ace,

Long time follower of your contributions.

In regards to this week's wildcard slate, I was digging up stats that I felt would be most helpful and I wondered if you put much stock in DVOA #'s?

11 of the playoff teams are in the Top 15 and then Indy resides at # 25. ( IN THE NON-ADJUSTED CATEGORY THEY FALL TO 31ST)

Indy who played in one of the league's pre-eminent cupcake divisions was the only playoff team with more PA than PF- to me they are huge indicators that scream "FRAUD"!

Re: HOU-CIN tilt, in their last 8 games, CIN went 7-1 vs. a .409 SOS and finished +100 pts.
HOU went 3-5 vs. a .492 SOS and finished -33 pts.

You may recall that CINCY'S one lost down that stretch was a 20-19 result to DAL where A.C. Green literally dropped 5 ball ( 2 in the EZ and 3 others inside 12 yards of the EZ that all had easy money written all over them.)

Schaub is not right, Cincy has the league's #1 sack rate and a ferocious pass rush going and will be very comfortable at this venue having played here in the same game LY. I wish Dalton had more weapons but he should still have a field day with this soft HOU secondary. BJE has been much more productive with his running game in 2nd H of season which has been an instrumental part of the balanced attack on offense leading to CIN success.

Coach Lewis only has to take a page from that film in the NE-HOU game where I predicted NE would lay waste to them the same
way they did to Indy a few weeks earlier. In fact, I even called Kubiak to run Foster and Forsett hard to keep Brady off the field and said that will not even last 1Q. before they are down 17-0 or 21-0 and you will recall that is exactly what transpired.

Love to hear your take and discuss these games further with anyone interested.


xfl

 

[Betallsports]

Ace,

Long time follower of your contributions.

In regards to this week's wildcard slate, I was digging up stats that I felt would be most helpful and I wondered if you put much stock in DVOA #'s?

11 of the playoff teams are in the Top 15 and then Indy resides at # 25. ( IN THE NON-ADJUSTED CATEGORY THEY FALL TO 31ST)

Indy who played in one of the league's pre-eminent cupcake divisions was the only playoff team with more PA than PF- to me they are huge indicators that scream "FRAUD"!

Re: HOU-CIN tilt, in their last 8 games, CIN went 7-1 vs. a .409 SOS and finished +100 pts.
HOU went 3-5 vs. a .492 SOS and finished -33 pts.

You may recall that CINCY'S one lost down that stretch was a 20-19 result to DAL where A.C. Green literally dropped 5 ball ( 2 in the EZ and 3 others inside 12 yards of the EZ that all had easy money written all over them.)

Schaub is not right, Cincy has the league's #1 sack rate and a ferocious pass rush going and will be very comfortable at this venue having played here in the same game LY. I wish Dalton had more weapons but he should still have a field day with this soft HOU secondary. BJE has been much more productive with his running game in 2nd H of season which has been an instrumental part of the balanced attack on offense leading to CIN success.

Coach Lewis only has to take a page from that film in the NE-HOU game where I predicted NE would lay waste to them the same
way they did to Indy a few weeks earlier. In fact, I even called Kubiak to run Foster and Forsett hard to keep Brady off the field and said that will not even last 1Q. before they are down 17-0 or 21-0 and you will recall that is exactly what transpired.

Love to hear your take and discuss these games further with anyone interested.


xfl

Figured that i would throw a few things into the mix on the Cin / Hou game.

Andy Dalton faced the Texans twice in 2011 but faced two entirely different defensive strategies. In the regular season, the Texans sent five or more pass rushers on 60.0 percent of his dropbacks, but after going 11-of-17 for 141 yards and a score against such pressure, the Texans toned down the pass rush. In the postseason, Dalton faced five or more rushers 21.3 percent of the time and threw three interceptions against four or fewer rushers.

He also got Sacked 4 times in that Postseason game. ( 4 times in the regular season game as well )
dalton has been sacked 46 times this year. ( #3 in the NFL this season ) * think this will be a problem in this upcoming game.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace,

Long time follower of your contributions.

In regards to this week's wildcard slate, I was digging up stats that I felt would be most helpful and I wondered if you put much stock in DVOA #'s?

11 of the playoff teams are in the Top 15 and then Indy resides at # 25. ( IN THE NON-ADJUSTED CATEGORY THEY FALL TO 31ST)

Indy who played in one of the league's pre-eminent cupcake divisions was the only playoff team with more PA than PF- to me they are huge indicators that scream "FRAUD"!

Re: HOU-CIN tilt, in their last 8 games, CIN went 7-1 vs. a .409 SOS and finished +100 pts.
HOU went 3-5 vs. a .492 SOS and finished -33 pts.

You may recall that CINCY'S one lost down that stretch was a 20-19 result to DAL where A.C. Green literally dropped 5 ball ( 2 in the EZ and 3 others inside 12 yards of the EZ that all had easy money written all over them.)

Schaub is not right, Cincy has the league's #1 sack rate and a ferocious pass rush going and will be very comfortable at this venue having played here in the same game LY. I wish Dalton had more weapons but he should still have a field day with this soft HOU secondary. BJE has been much more productive with his running game in 2nd H of season which has been an instrumental part of the balanced attack on offense leading to CIN success.

Coach Lewis only has to take a page from that film in the NE-HOU game where I predicted NE would lay waste to them the same
way they did to Indy a few weeks earlier. In fact, I even called Kubiak to run Foster and Forsett hard to keep Brady off the field and said that will not even last 1Q. before they are down 17-0 or 21-0 and you will recall that is exactly what transpired.

Love to hear your take and discuss these games further with anyone interested.


xfl

dont follow DVOA....but it nice to see it from your view....home team in the playoff is big....so lets talk about the hou- cinn game....every one is trying to talk me in to cinn winning this games...if hou can get to half time even or ahead...they will win this game.....cin avg 13 in the last 4 games...hou only 10.....that would be a great 1st score for hou...than in the 2nd half at home I feel they will win.

ind game I like the fact that ind controls the ball more....+9 in time vs Balt -30....this is no easy game...the way I feel right now take the 6.5 points in a close game.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Comes down to who you trust.

cin is 2-6-1 vs foes with a winning record.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

sea 12 wins
dall
gb
car
ne
sf
min
nyj
chi
az
buf
sf
stl

in order of the week

that is 12....tell me the that is not?

they did not cover the last game Vs St Louis.

I am talking ATS. Lost to Zona week 1, St louis week 4, Detroit week 8, Miami week 12, and St louis in week 17. 5 losses ATS. 11-5

 

[xflrejects]

Ace, is that all-time ATS CINCY playoff stat you posted?

If so, I can live with that and if it was based on the season, I see this team turning a page especially when I refused to believe early on in the year.

I will get back to you shortly on the good points you posed.

 

[ACE-ACE]

they did not cover the last game Vs St Louis.

I am talking ATS. Lost to Zona week 1, St louis week 4, Detroit week 8, Miami week 12, and St louis in week 17. 5 losses ATS. 11-5

you are right only cover 7 not 10.5...my typo